Warming has hit 1.5C. Here's what that means.

The Paris Agreement 

On December 12, 2015, 196 parties signed the Paris Agreement. This agreement is a legally binding treaty, holding the countries and regions accountable for preventing the global temperature from rising over 2C above pre-industrial levels. At this stage in the plan, the 196 parties are focused on preventing global temperature from rising 1.5C above pre-industrial levels before the end of the century, when more serious effects of climate change could trigger. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change associates the crossing of the 1.5 degree threshold with extreme weather and other devastating impacts.

Recent Developments 

Unfortunately, recent developments have thrown a wrench in these plans. Since the start of 2024, most climate scientists have been in general agreement that 2024 is projected to be the warmest year on record. As of October 2024, the likelihood of 2024 breaking warming records has become “virtually certain”. The Copernicus Climate Change Service has also projected that 2024 would be the year that global warming would exceed 1.5C for the first time on record, as the World Meteorological Service has simultaneously issued a red alert on “the sheer pace of climate change in a single generation.” October 2024 also broke records in several US states for being the warmest year on record. The average US October 2024 temperature now holds second place in the ranking of hottest Octobers in recorded history. As of right now, the 1.5C threshold has officially been passed for the first time, which has dampened hope for achieving the Paris Agreement.  

Average Global Temperature is increasing. How does that affect health?

Although it may not seem like a mere 1.5 degree temperature increase would affect humans much, there are many direct and indirect ways in which it does. Some direct impacts of warming include increased risk of heatstroke. WHO data associates 37% of worldwide heatstrokes with climate change, and as global temperature increases, that percentage will only rise. Although the direct effects are severe, the vaster problems arise from the indirect effects of climate change. Drought caused by warming can significantly disrupt agriculture, leading to hikes in food prices and decreased availability of produce in general. Overall, climate change is leading to regression in communities, plunging people into poverty, food insecurity, or a combination of those two examples, among a myriad of other harmful conditions. 

What does this mean for the Paris Agreement?

Although reaching this 1.5C threshold will definitely make it more difficult for the participants in the Paris Agreement to ultimately curb warming before it reaches 2C, it doesn’t make it impossible. Technically, the Paris Agreement hasn’t been formally breached either, although the 1.5C warming was disheartening to experience. According to the agreement itself, temporary 1.5C warming, if brought under control again, may not be as discouraging as we thought. Since Earth is prone to natural weather fluctuations, the extent of warming is usually measured as an average over a 20-30 year period. Since we have barely (and in some regions, temporarily) exceeded 1.5C of warming since pre-industrial times, if we bring that number back under control, the Paris Agreement should remain realistically achievable when the extent of warming is averaged. If the countries and regions that signed the Paris Agreement all begin to put more effort into climate mitigation through shifting energy consumption from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, the goals of the Paris Agreement should remain in reach. In more detail, the timeline for this would be significant reductions in emissions by the end of the decade (2030), and achieving net 0 carbon emissions by 2050. To phrase it simply, there is still hope for the Paris Agreement, although achieving the goal will be undeniably difficult.  

Works Cited

“Climate change.” World Health Organization (WHO), 12 October 2023, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health. Accessed 18 November 2024.

Garric, Audrey. “2024 will be hottest year on record and exceed 1.5°C warming for first time.” Le Monde, 11 November 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2024/11/11/2024-will-be-hottest-year-on-record-and-exceed-1-5-c-warming-for-first-time_6732404_114.html. Accessed 18 November 2024.

“Is the 1.5°C limit still in reach? FAQs.” Climate Analytics, https://climateanalytics.org/comment/is-the-15c-limit-still-in-reach-faqs. Accessed 18 November 2024.

“The Paris Agreement.” UNFCCC, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement. Accessed 18 November 2024.

“2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest year on record, scientists say.” USA Today, 11 November 2024, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/11/11/2024-virtually-certain-to-be-warmest-year-on-record-scientists-say/76166662007/. Accessed 18 November 2024.