How can a Changing Ocean Current Affect Arctic Warming?

 Arctic Warming 

The Arctic region, located around the northernmost pole of the Earth, has been one of the most affected regions by human-induced climate change. Since the Industrial Revolution, the average global temperature has increased by about 1.3 degrees Celsuis. However, this impact varies significantly across different regions and landscapes, with some areas being far more affected than others. One of such areas experiencing this disproportionate impact is the Arctic. A phenomenon called Arctic Amplification has confirmed that the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the world’s average. Arctic Amplification is often difficult to track, being consistently underestimated by scientists’ climate models due to its hard-to-track sea ice, clouds, aerosols, and heat transport processes, but the reasoning can be summarized. Generally, in regions such as the tropics, when water vapor rises and greenhouse gases are emitted, the heat in the air rises and mixes vertically–a process called vertical mixing. However, in the Arctic, there is less sunlight and less evaporation. Since it is difficult for this limited water vapor to rise, most convection in the Arctic happens near the surface of the ice, where greenhouse gases become trapped. So while greenhouse gases in the tropics become evenly distributed in the air due to vertical mixing, greenhouse gases in the Arctic stay close to the ice, meaning that the surface (where the ice is) is much closer to the heat than the surface of the tropics. 

Arctic Warming and Human Health

Arctic warming is a pressing issue that has many consequences, including effects on human health. For example, Arctic warming could disrupt air currents in the area, prompting more extreme weather events. In addition, warming leads to loss of habitat for animals like polar bears, explaining their population decline. Native marine animals like bowhead whales have also been disrupted by climate change in the Arctic. Their migration patterns have been shifting earlier in Spring and later in Fall, forcing local indigenous peoples that rely on them to compensate by changing their hunting schedules. The same is happening with species such as the Arctic goose and more, decreasing survival rates for animals and therefore making it harder for the people who rely on them to survive. 

A Shift in Currents 

Although the sheer scale of Arctic warming may be discouraging, a new study led by UC Riverside leaves us feeling a little more hopeful. The study explored the effect of a key ocean current in the area, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (also known as AMOC). The AMOC has been slowing down for a while now, but scientists hadn’t factored the effects of that slowdown onto Arctic warming until now. Without considering the slowing AMOC, it was predicted that Arctic temperatures would rise by 10 degrees Celsus by the end of the century. After factoring the AMOC in, the results are not quite as dire. UC Riverside’s research estimates that with current events in mind, the Arctic will only warm 8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. 

Additional Consequences 

Although the effects of the slowing AMOC are positive in the case of the Arctic, the current has a significant influence on the rest of the world as well, and is starting to raise concerns in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is a rain belt, a narrow area where trade winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres  converge, positioned near the equator. This meeting of trade winds and the heat of the equator create an area of active rain and humidity around the tropics. The slowing AMOC is creating a possibility of the rain belt migrating southward, which would disrupt weather patterns and infrastructure in tropical areas, causing droughts and ruining water supplies. 

Works Cited 

Bernstein, Jules. “Slowing ocean current could ease Arctic warming - a little.” UC Riverside News, 2024, https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2024/10/25/slowing-ocean-current-could-ease-arctic-warming-little. Accessed 26 December 2024.

Cohen, Li. “Climate change will cause a shift in Earth's tropical rain belt — threatening water and food supply for billions, study says.” CBS News, 2021, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-tropical-rain-belt-water-food-supply/. Accessed 26 December 2024.

Henry, Matthew. “Why is the Arctic warming faster than the rest of the planet?” World Wildlife Fund, https://www.arcticwwf.org/the-circle/stories/why-is-the-arctic-warming-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-planet/. Accessed 26 December 2024.

NOAA Arctic. “Consequences of Rapid Environmental Arctic Change for People.” NOAA Arctic, 2022, https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2022/consequences-of-rapid-environmental-arctic-change-for-people/. Accessed 26 December 2024.

Tandon, Ayesha. “The Arctic has warmed ‘nearly four times faster’ than the global average.” CarbonBrief, 2022, https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-arctic-has-warmed-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-global-average/#:~:text=Rantanen%20et%20al%20(2022)%2C,previously%20thought%2C%20new%20research%20suggests. Accessed 26 December 2024.